A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
